Today: The already difficult situation is aggravated by the fact that the pandemic, as a natural disaster, has widespread throughout the world at exactly the same time, which is, usually, not the case with other types of natural catastrophes. There is almost no country that has a built-in emergency response system that is spam to respond to disasters like these that hit us globally. Even wars aren’t being fought on all fronts, from all available weapons at exactly the same moment. .
Tomorrow: Times of upheaval are always time of radical change. In society (especially education) and economy. After these pandemics, nothing should remain the same. It is more realistic that the COVID-19 disaster will recur, in some new appearance, than it won’t. Also, the new impact is more likely to be stronger than the current one. In fact, weaker strikes were already happening, as an announcement and a hint of what had struck us. Avian, swine, and even seasonal flu were just an overture to something big and bad.
The day after tomorrow: What next? Of course survival is the ultimate but also the minimum requirement. There are different scenarios: from (self)isolation (on a scale from 0 to almost 100%), through collective immunization to complete ignoring. It will be interesting to study the different scenarios and their effects. Currently, (because of the enormous number of casualties) focus is on Italy, Spain and the US (of course, China). For various reasons, the Southern Hemisphere, Belarus, Sweden, both Koreas, as well as the most populous countries, are yet to be the subject of interest.
The data are mostly available and will only gain significance once the pandemic is over. Of course, we will be asking ourselves who lied and who hid the truth (again, the most convenient form of lies).
Population: As with any natural disaster, assistance for the most vulnerable part of population tends to be provided by various levels of social community. Bill? With a miniscule consequence, only the rich will get themselves out. Probably, at the expense of those who are not. Flagrant proof: layoffs.
Economy: Assistance is generally being planned. On a scale from 0 (Belarus), to as far as possible or as long as needed (Serbia). This topic is yet to be the subject of extensive debate and various analyzes, as it (like any global crisis) has caught decision makers asleep. Truth is already emerging in the form of a new world economic crisis, even more devastating than the one in 2008. Since it is not the first one, I believe that civilization will be able to cope with it, regardless of all the specifics that characterize it.
Health: I believe that the vast majority of the population has been exposed to the virus and that some form of immunity has indeed been built (time will prove). The mental health of the population doesn’t worry me much either. Experiences with (self)isolation indicate that the needs of the human species remain consistent with the levels of the Maslow Pyramid (yet to be proven).
However, all this is important in order to end the crisis and mitigate the effects of the disaster. The real question is how to proceed.
I am thinking in the direction of hierarchically defined scenarios:
Scenario 0: As before, we don’t know what is happening to us. Proponents of this scenario will insist on statistics, comparing the charts in a way that suits them, in support of their thesis. To begin with, we should expect “bidding” with the death toll. More out of a disgrace than ignorance, I would say. Honestly, we are all waiting for Lukashenko’s game to end.
Sceptical scenario: Well, it happened. Never again, hopefully. We acknowledge the entire catastrophe, but tomorrow is a new day. Right Tramp?
Realistic scenario: Let’s identify the causes and the damage to society and economy as soon as possible. The ultimate goal is to detect and eliminate the causes of the pandemic so that it does not recur. The UN is already moving in this direction.
Responsive scenario: This was just a warning. We need to deal with the catastrophe before it even happens, even if we don’t know what it really looks like. What is it we should do to implement this scenario?
My thoughts: Radical, substantial changes. In my opinion, life should be seen as a gift, and every new day as chance for a fresh start. Everyone needs to start by themselves – what do I need to change. More broadly, to work, school, family, leisure time…
Are new technologies (artificial intelligence primarily) a light at the end or at the beginning of the tunnel?